UK energy from waste sector could go carbon negative by 2035, new report finds

• New analysis by Baringa finds that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology could enable the UK energy from waste (EfW) sector to deliver up to 10 million tonnes of durable carbon removals annually by 2040, exceeding current Climate Change Committee projections.
• The report sets out five key policy levers to unlock this opportunity as the Climate Change Committee state that work to scale up the roll out of carbon removals must “accelerate now”.

A new report from Baringa, commissioned by enfinium, a leading UK energy from waste operator, finds that the UK’s energy from waste sector could be carbon negative by 2035 – and deliver up to 10 million tonnes of carbon removals annually if Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is deployed rapidly. Additionally, the findings reveal that applying CCS to energy from waste facilities will be necessary for UK power generation to reach net-negative by 2040.

The report,¹ ‘Realising the carbon-negative opportunity in the energy from waste sector’, highlights that:

• By combining energy from waste with CCS, sometimes known as waste to energy with carbon capture and storage (WECCS), emissions can fall by over 70% by 2035 and go carbon negative as early as 2035 in an accelerated deployment scenario.
• WECCS roll-out could exceed the Climate Change Committee’s energy from waste target for carbon removals, generating up to 10 million tonnes of carbon removals a year by 2040.  
• Overall UK power generation emissions will only become net-negative by 2040 if CCS is deployed in energy from waste. Without CCS, energy from waste fleet fossil emissions will remain above 7 million tonnes of CO₂ a year.
• Less than 50% of energy from waste facilities need CCS for the sector to go carbon negative by 2035.

Mike Maudsley, CEO of enfinium, said: “Baringa’s report shines a light on how the UK can respond to the Climate Change Committee’s call to accelerate carbon removals on the path to net zero. Even if recycling targets are met, the UK will still generate over 17 million tonnes of unrecyclable waste each year. Scaling up WECCS would turn that challenge into an opportunity, harnessing waste to remove carbon from the atmosphere and helping to realise the UK’s journey to net zero.”

Chris Thackeray, Director and Global CCS Lead, Baringa, commented: “We’re delighted to share our analysis on realising the carbon-negative opportunity in the energy from waste sector. By deploying carbon capture and storage technology at scale on energy from waste facilities, the sector could make a sizeable contribution to UK emissions reductions. Because of the carbon dioxide removal potential of the proportion of biogenic waste, it could be possible for the sector to be carbon negative by 2040. With the right policies, commercial models and investment we can realise the carbon-negative opportunity of EfW and put the net in net zero.”

Energy from waste can produce carbon removals, or ‘negative emissions’, because around 50% of the UK’s unrecyclable waste consists of biogenic materials – such as food, plants and soiled paper – which have already absorbed CO₂ from the atmosphere. Capturing and permanently storing this CO₂ using CCS prevents it from being released, resulting in a net removal of carbon from the atmosphere.²

Government figures project that over 17 million tonnes of unrecyclable waste will continue to be produced each year into the 2040s.³ Without energy from waste facilities, this waste would go to landfill – which emits twice as many emissions as energy from waste, including methane, a potent greenhouse gas that has 80 times the climate warming effect of CO₂.⁴ Emissions from the waste sector have fallen 66% since 1990 as growing volumes of biodegradable waste have been diverted from landfill.⁵

The report comes as Dr Alan Whitehead CBE leads a government review into scaling engineered carbon removals. enfinium’s response highlighted WECCS as a vital route to decarbonising unrecyclable waste and delivering large-scale carbon removals. EfW facilities already cut emissions by diverting waste from landfill and supporting a circular economy. Retrofitting them with CCS could enable carbon-negative baseload power and heat—offering a near-term, shovel-ready solution to strengthen energy resilience and meet UK climate goals.

The Climate Change Committee’sSeventh Carbon Budget warned that work to roll out carbon removals in the UK must “accelerate now” if the UK is to achieve net zero – which requires over 35 million tonnes of carbon removals per year by 2050.⁶

To realise the opportunity, the report identifies five policy actions including ending biogenic waste going to landfill, continued Government support for energy from waste CCS projects, inclusion of carbon removals in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, and enabling non-pipeline transport such as shipping and rail.

ENDS

Statistical information

1 Baringa, ‘Realising the carbon-negative opportunity in the energy from waste sector’, July 2025, available here: https://enfinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025-07-31-Baringa-Enfinium_Making_EfW_Carbon-Negative_vFinal.pdf

2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that biogenic matter (of which half of their feedstock is) is carbon neutral at the point of combustion and therefore if you capture that carbon at source it becomes negative. The CCS technology will capture and permanently store underground carbon dioxide that was taken from the atmosphere as the biogenic material grew.

3 DEFRA, ‘Residual waste infrastructure capacity note’, December 2024, available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/residual-waste-infrastructure-capacity-note/residual-waste-infrastructure-capacity-note

4 DEFRA, ‘Environmental Improvement Plan 2023’, February 2023, p.155, available here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1168372/environmental-improvement-plan-2023.pdf

5 Climate Change Committee, ‘Seventh Carbon Budget’, p.245, available here: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/The-Seventh-Carbon-Budget.pdf

6 Climate Change Committee, ‘Seventh Carbon Budget’, p.269, available here: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/The-Seventh-Carbon-Budget.pdf

About enfinium

enfinium is a leading UK energy from waste operator with four operational sites in the UK, in West Yorkshire, Kent and Flintshire, and two in construction. enfinium diverts 2.3 million tonnes of unrecyclable waste from climate-damaging landfill, putting it to good use by turning it into home grown energy, enough to power 500,000 UK homes. enfinium’s ambition is to transform its facilities into local ‘decarbonisation hubs’ powered by the millions of tonnes of unrecyclable waste the UK will produce for decades to come. Using existing energy from waste infrastructure, enfinium could contribute to heat networks, produce electrolytic hydrogen, or use carbon capture technology to provide durable, high quality carbon removals which will be critical for the UK to achieve net zero by 2050. For more on enfinium, please visit www.enfinium.co.uk.

About Baringa

Baringa is a global management consultancy operating across sectors including energy, financial services, consumer products and services and government. Its consultancy specialisms include customer, digital, technology, data and artificial intelligence, talent and culture, supply chain, procurement, sustainability, value creation and strategy consulting. Find out more at baringa.com or on LinkedIn and Twitter.